Sept. 22, 2021
Flagstaff AZ Real Estate Market Data Provided by The Kelly Broaddus Real Estate Advisors Team / by Joselyn Uy
Is the Flagstaff Housing Market Starting to Cool Off ?
We normally see the housing market take a breather in the fall as families send their kids to school and hunker down for the winter. However, the pandemic may have thrown this pattern off balance. Here's the latest update on the Flagstaff housing market.
FLAGSTAFF HOME SALES
The US Existing-Home Sales dropped 2.0% in August while Greater Flagstaff's housing sales remain flat vs July. Flagstaff home sales posted a 17.9% decline from a year ago with 216 units sold, according to data from the Northern Arizona Multiple Listing Service (NAAR). Our white-hot market has been driven by low supply and high demand, but more inventory entering the market is changing the picture. As more people become vaccinated, it could signal a return to a more normal market.
Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors chief economist, admits, “There has been a turn in the market from super heated to still very strong.” He went on to say, “We see inventory beginning to tick up, which will lessen the intensity of multiple offers.”
Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist.
This August the Kelly Broaddus Real Estate Advisors Team sold 12 homes in Flagstaff valued at $9.9M. Big thanks to our clients!
FLAGSTAFF MEDIAN HOME PRICE
"The median list-to-sales ratio for this area is 103.7%." List to Sales Ratio is the percentage of the list price that the buyer ultimately paid for the property.
The median sold price in August is up 25% year over year to $600,000, a new monthly high. We’ve already seen a decrease in the rate of price growth. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, has suggested that many of the factors leading to high demand were caused by the pandemic. He recently said, “Already, the easing of the inventory squeeze has reduced the month-to-month pace of price gains,” and this trend will likely continue. Flagstaff's sales of new and existing homes is sustained at over 200 units sold, despite the sky-high prices.
Homes remained on the market for an average of 53 days. This is down from the all-time low of 43 days we saw in March, but faster than the 54 days we saw a year prior. A lot of this change is seasonal, and some of it is buyer fatigue, but demand overall remains historically high.
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August 2021 Flagstaff Market Watch Summary
Total Home Sales - 216 homes, down 17.9% vs August 2020.
Median Sale Price - $600,000, up 25% vs August 2020, highest in more than a decade
Mortgage rates - Average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate ended 9/17 at the highest levels in roughly 2 months at 3.03%
Longest days on market (SF): 431 days This is a 2350 sq ft, 3 beds, 2.5 bath, new construction townhome in Flagstaff Ranch
CDOM The acronym CDOM (Cumulative Days on Market) is used by the Flagstaff MLS to describe how many days a property has been available for sale. A property has to be off the MLS for at least 90 days for the CDOM to restart, even if it is listed by a different agent. We report the average days on market for properties sold based on CDOM.
The number of days a home sits on the market can tell us a lot about pricing. A high CDOM is commonly a strong indicator that the home is overpriced.
FLAGSTAFF'S PRICIEST HOMES SOLD in AUGUST 2021
Photo courtesy of Century 21 Northwest
- The highest-priced single-family Flagstaff home that sold in August was a $4,200,000 custom built 6 bedroom, 6.5 bathroom home with walkout basement, great room, game room, casita, & 3 car garage. Located in Forest Highlands with exceptional San Francisco Peaks & forest views.
- The highest-priced Flagstaff townhome sale was a $700,000 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2461 sqft luxury townhome in Switzer Mesa, just a short walk to downtown Flagstaff!
- The highest-priced Flagstaff condo sale last month was a $335,000 well maintained 2 bed 2 bath Walnut Meadows condo conveniently close to the Continental Country Club and all of it's ammenities
THE MOST AFFORDABLE FLAGSTAFF HOMES SOLD in AUGUST 2021
Photo courtesy of Linton Real Estate
- The lowest-priced single-family Flagstaff home that sold in August was a $300,000 one-bedroom home in Southside/Brannen that backs up to the Arizona Trail system
- The lowest-priced Flagstaff townhome that sold last month was our listing, a $260,000 one bedroom townhouse close to Flagstaff Mall, located in Christmas Tree Estates
- The lowest-priced Flagstaff condo that sold was a $268,000 one bedroom condo in Tanglewood. With access to Bear Paw Activity Center, hiking and biking trails, Continental Country Club Pool, gym and golf.
Flagstaff Home Buyer Advice
New active listings in the Flagstaff MLS are up 81% from their lowest point in January of this year, but our overall supply is still down 11.1% of what it was a year ago.
"Demand for homes is making a comeback because even though home prices are high and competition is still steep, homebuyers don't have many alternatives but to keep trying." Combine this with low mortgage rates, and demand will likely continue to be historically high.
NAR’s director of housing and commercial research, Gay Cororaton, put it best: “We’re seeing the gap narrowing between demand and supply,” but “There’s still a huge, huge gap.”
There is hope on the horizon for buyers. As supply continues to increase, and the rate of price growth continues to slow, mortgage rates remain low. Danielle Hale, the chief economist at Realtor.com, says, “Despite the ongoing challenges of today's housing market, including limited inventory, lightning-fast home sales and competition from investors with deep pockets, many buyers are finding ways to persist until they find and close on a home."
If you have been looking to buy but felt overwhelmed by the competition, your time may have arrived. The fall months usually indicate a slowing of the real estate market. Hale predicts, "Although we didn't see this sweet spot last fall as buyers were making up for time lost to lockdowns, there are signs that we'll see it this year."
Our market may be cooling, but home prices are still likely to appreciate. If you are looking to buy, our low mortgage rates might not be around for much longer. Take advantage of them while you can.
We suggest you get started by taking a look at the homes that are available in (area) right now:
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Flagstaff Home Seller Advice
If you are a seller looking to take advantage of the hot market, you aren’t alone. In fact, sellers trying not to miss out on high prices could be motivating the increase in supply. According to Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather, "This continued demand for homes is enticing more homeowners to sell in order to avoid the fear of missing out on historically high prices.”
Ironically, sellers’ enthusiasm to take advantage of the hot market could be contributing to the cooldown. However, it is unlikely this represents a large enough group to shift the market long term.
If you’re worried you missed the sellers’ boat, don’t worry. Tim Ellis of Redfin Media says, “The market frenzy of 2021 has cooled somewhat, but home sellers are still very much in the driver’s seat in the housing market today.” We can see this in our rising prices. From this time last year, the median sales price has increased by 16%.
Senior Economist George Ratiu says he “expects an unusually busy fall season” this year. More people are vaccinated and feel comfortable going out into the world again. This means more open houses, more attendees, and more activity in general. “Sellers are putting homes on the market,” says Ratiu. “Normally this activity happens early in the spring.”
What does this all mean for you? While the market may be cooling, experts all agree: we’re still in a seller’s market. Demand remains high, and supply remains low, even if it’s not quite as low as it was previously.
If you’re interested in knowing your home’s value in the present market based on recent sales in the Northern Arizona MLS, enter your address here to find out what your home is worth right now. Click the image below then enter your address to find out what your home is currently worth.
Home Selling Tips Our blog for home sellers has tons of tips to help sell your home faster and add thousands of dollars to your bottom line. Check it out.
We at The Kelly Broaddus Team with eXp Realty know that the only result that ultimately matters is that your home gets sold — and sold for the right amount. Satisfied clients say it all. Check out our 5 Star Reviews.
If you have any questions about our market or are thinking about buying or selling in Flagstaff, don’t hesitate to call us at 888.446.5602 or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org. We’re out in the market every day helping clients to buy and sell in Northern Arizona, and we do research so we have the best advice to give you, no matter your situation.
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